Looking to 2010 in NC

brownsox from Dailykos has a good summation of the coming 2010 Senate race here in my home state.

To his credit, Richard Burr has positioned himself as well as a conservative can these days. He is a well-respected, hard working guy with a first-rate constituent services office. He also spends a good deal of time in NC at local community events and meeting with key leaders. We all saw how effectively the Hagan campaign was able to jab Liddy Dole for how little time and attention NC got from her. Not so with Burr. In addition, while a social conservative, Burr isn't a bomb thrower, and as a result, his cultural conservatism doesn't hurt him here.

No, the shape of this race will depend more on how the Obama administration performs, and how Burr responds to Obama's initiatives. If Obama performs well and the economy is beginning to turn, and most importantly, if Burr has opposed key Obama initiatives, then he is in serious jeopardy. That's the tricky part for Burr now. He is a conservative in an increasingly moderate state, and he is sure to face some difficult votes in the coming Congress. If he moves leftward and is able to attach himself to some bi-partisan Obama achievements, then he is less vulnerable. If he is seen as obstructing highly popular Obama proposals on issues like health care, energy, taxes, and infrastructure spending, then he'll be in real trouble.

Of all the Democrats who are expressing interest in this race (and there are a great deal, as brownsox points out, in light of Hagan and Obama's victories here), Roy Cooper is the most widely popular one, so I'd give him a slight edge going in, but it's a long way from here to there.

This is a seat to watch. Burr's positioning in the 2009 Congress will be watched fiercely by the Democrats here, and as he accumulates "no" votes, he'll get hammered up and down the state.